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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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