Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
